Is Bitcoin options data showing bullish sentiment as the US presidential election approaches?

As the US presidential election approaches, some traders believe that Bitcoin (BTC) may break through its previous highs in the coming weeks, regardless of who is elected president. This view marks a shift in the market's attitude towards elections.

For a long time, traders generally believe that if the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the election, it will be a major benefit to the cryptocurrency market. Trump's pro cryptocurrency stance and its commitment to build the United States into a global Bitcoin power have made many market participants have high expectations of him.

However, in recent times, more and more market participants believe that regardless of who wins the election, Bitcoin may face a wave of upward trend. The reason behind this is not only due to the policy positions of the two candidates, but also due to the combined effects of various macroeconomic factors.

Jeff Mei, the Chief Operating Officer of BTSE Cryptocurrency Exchange, stated in an interview with CoinDesk:

"Both presidential candidates have adopted a pro cryptocurrency stance to attract voters, but it is difficult to determine whether any of their promises will be truly realized. However, whether it is He Jinli or Trump, the market is obviously optimistic about the upcoming government changes and policies. Regardless of the results, traders and investors believe that changes are good in themselves."

Jeff Mei further pointed out that this optimism coincides with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years and the recent strong performance of the stock market. These factors collectively drive the expectation that Bitcoin may break through historical highs and reach $80000.

The data from the options market seems to confirm this viewpoint. According to Deribit's data, option traders have started to increase their bets on Bitcoin hitting a new high at the end of November. Especially for call options expiring on November 29th, the strike price of $80000 is the most highly anticipated, while the price of $70000 also attracts a lot of attention. The options expiring on December 27th are concentrated between $100000 and $80000.

In addition, the option expiring on November 8th shows that the most closely watched price range in the market is $75000, indicating that the market is full of expectations for the trend of Bitcoin during the election period.

However, there are also some market participants who hold a reserved attitude towards this. SOFA Insights Director Augustine Fan stated that this price behavior is more of an election hedge than a bullish expectation.

I don't think people buying $80000 Bitcoin call options are betting on a price increase. It's more like a cheap option for a broader market rebound because the implied volatility hasn't risen significantly at the moment

He further pointed out that the volatility of Bitcoin has been clearly biased towards post election price increases since a few weeks ago, reflecting the market's view of it as a hedging tool. As the election approaches, the market will pay close attention to the trend of Bitcoin. Whether He Jinli or Trump finally takes the White House, the market seems to expect that the volatility and price of cryptocurrency will further rise in this period.

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